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Betfair Horse Racing Trading Strategies: Slow starters offer a low-risk proposition.

Trading Betfair doesn't always require a large bank balance, Caan Berry shows us another way in for some low-risk, high-yield returns.

"For us the best thing is an over-reaction . Slow starting horses particularly in shorter races (7f or less) often provide this for us."

If you've read the previous post about front-running horses you'll know although I'm no form student by any stretch of the imagination. I often look at basic information offered by Timeform to spot a horse's preferred way of running a race. On the exchange this represents an endless list of opportunities to make some cash, however nobody likes to risk too much so finding a way of returning a large amount for very small risk is understandably very popular .

For every action there is a reaction - for us the best thing is an over-reaction . Slow starting horses particularly in shorter races (7f or less) often provide this for us, as an example on Wednesday August 20 in a 7f race at Lingfield (14:20) Pinter ran with a starting price of [5.7]. Just about every time this horse runs it lethargically leaves the gate and tucks in behind the field for a held-up style of running, with the aim of producing a late effort, the result being the opposite of our front-running angle.

Often the price drifts, sometimes erratically depending on how slow the start is. If the other horses are to ensure the race is run at a strong pace the reaction is to be more severe. This is great for us as we have our first 'over-reaction' further into the race no attempt to gain ground means the price is more likely to drift.

At this point I know you're thinking that this is because the horse is losing, but for Pinter it's not true as it's just the preferred way to run the race, the great thing being an enhanced price is offered to the actual chance of winning. Pinter hit an in-play high of [720.0] before winning the race, even if the late charge had not resulted in a victory it certainly would have offered us an opportunity to trade out for a very large return on our initial stake offering a very large upside with a limited downside at risk.

It's up to you how you prefer to play it, often early on it's possible to make a fast profit (although not so large) whereas if it's left later in the race the risk of losing increases but the potential profits get bigger.

Obviously this strategy requires some judgement - although if you keep stakes very low at £2 it's not all that easy to go broke. And with the aid of the tick offset tool in the GeeksToy trading software things are made far easier. You can set the tool so it will place your exit bet instantly after your entry bet is matched.

To make this strategy as painless as possible I would advise checking out the races prior to the start, you're looking for a horse that historically was 'held-up' or 'slowly away' in the description that also is believed to have a good chance of being relatively close in the finish. Pinter being the prime example.

Betting Strategy: Trading on horseracing.

Betfair offers hundreds of trading opportunities every day but traders must be disciplined and be willing to accept a loss when the market goes against them.

Locked in profits, green books and free bets - it all sounds too good to be true so we asked regular Betfair trader Wayne Bailey to investigate.

"I'm going to say something which seems paradoxical in some ways - but I became a good scalp trader when I realised that you can't really predict which way the price of a horse will go."

It is perhaps, a little ambitious of me to try to explain how to trade in a short article but hopefully I'll start the ball rolling and get some discussion going on the topic and we'll see where it leads. I'm by no means an expert but I've had some good success over the years and now feel comfortable passing on some strategies that continue to work well for me and help me to earn some decent pocket money.

If there's an appetite for it, I may add some more articles and videos of strategies over the next couple of weeks but for now, I'll discuss a type of trade known as 'scalping' . Scalping is generally done on markets where the price is quite stable (usually on the favourite) and the trader is hoping to get a price move of just one or two ticks. Swing trading , which I may discuss in the future, attempts to get a big price move in a volatile market.

But first off, a very brief explanation of how trading works for the absolute novice:

Basically, trading is not dissimilar from buying and selling on the stock market. You are looking to back something at a high price and lay it at a low price (or lay at a low price first then back it at a high price), thus locking in an automatic profit or free bet.

So for example, let's say you back a horse (Fuzzy Cat) at [4.4] with £100 and the price moves in to [4.0] at which point you lay, again with £100.

Should the horse win, you would earn £340 from your back bet, but you owe out £300 for the lay. In other words, you get forty quid if the horse wins and nothing if it loses. It has become a risk free bet . The screenshot is in Euro by the way, as I live in Ireland:

Traders however, will rarely settle for the 'free bet' option and they will 'green up' the book instead. After the price move, the trader will lay with £110 instead of £100 :

As you can see, the trader here will now win £10 (or €10 in this case) no matter which horse wins - this is known as a green book. A green book is a thing of beauty I'm sure you'll agree but it's not quite so simple and if the price moves against you, you have to get out for a loss and endure a red book, which doesn't look so pretty.

That's the basics. The tricky part, is trying to take advantage of these price movements. How then, do we decide when to back and lay?

I'm going to say something which seems paradoxical in some ways - but I became a good scalp trader when I realised that you can't really predict which way the price of a horse will go. When I started out trading a few years back, I'd check all the graphs and take a position (based on past movements) hoping the price would move my way. I lost a lot of money doing that - it was purely guesswork.

Refreshingly, you don't have to guess the markets to be a good scalp trader . Everyone does it differently and perhaps some people are experts at price prediction, but for me the trick is to take a position by leaving a back or lay order a little bit away for the current price.

But here's the essential part: You need to look for a spot where there is very little money waiting already (so you will be at the top of the queue). To give you an example, let's look at a ladder interface on Betting Assistant (most traders use some sort of third party software which offer ladder views, one click betting etc.).

A ladder gives you a vertical view of the prices and allows you to see the market in much more detail. In the below example, the horse is currently trading at [2.98].

Here, I noticed that there was only £51 in the queue waiting to back the horse at [3.15] so I put in an order at that price for £100 (you will see that my money brought the total waiting to back at that price up to £151).

At this point, it's just a matter of playing the waiting game. I'm hoping the price rises to [3.10] at which point I get ready to click the pink box and lay. If it doesn't rise - I can simply cancel the order and no damage is done - that's one of the great things about this type of trading.

If it does rise and I see money getting eaten away at [3.10] (the box which contains £347 in the screenshot), I will lay. Then, when the price hits [3.15], my £100 order will start to get taken and this will complete the trade. The beauty is that because I got in early, my order will be right up near the top of the queue (you will remember that there was only £51 ahead of me) so I get matched very quickly.

Of course there is the possibility that the price will move back down as soon as I've layed (and never hit [3.15]) but if this happens, you have to get out for a loss pretty quickly - Never let the bet stand and hope for the best. Take it from me - it's a quick way to the poorhouse.

The great thing about this kind of trading is that you don't have to try predict which way the price will go. If for example, the price stayed at [2.98] and never moved upwards, I could simply cancel my back order and move on to the next market with no damage done.

I could probably write all day about this but a word count must be kept so I've put the above trade up as a YouTube video so you can see it in action yourselves. You'll need to open it in full-screen and turn up the volume. I'm new to recording the screen so hopefully the quality of my videos will improve over time.

I threw a few hundred into my trading account and I made that video to show people that you can do some decent trades with a relatively small bank . People think you have to have thousands in your account to trade properly but this is simply not the case. You can trade with any amount really - but remember; keep stakes to an absolute minimum when starting out as you will definitely make mistakes and probably bust a few banks along the way. It takes time and patience to learn how to trade and if you can't make profit with small amounts, you sure as hell won't do it with a large amount.

Finally, a word on the tools of the trade (no pun intended!):

Most traders use some sort of third party software. In the video, I'm using Betting Assistant but I also use Betangel which is an excellent piece of kit too. There is also some free trading software out there and I hope to try these out over the next few weeks. I won't recommend one over the other - it's sufficient to say that you should use whatever software you are comfortable with . I should also note that Betfair don't officially endorse any particular product and when you sign up, you enter an agreement with the vendor rather than Betfair.

Of course, this article is by no means comprehensive and every market offers a different opportunity. But the above is a strategy I use with good success nearly every day (on stable markets) so hopefully some of you will find it interesting. I'd like to get some discussion going on trading so if you've any comments, I'd love to hear them below.

Comments (2)

Jonathan | 01 February 2010.

Great blog, really looking forward to the follow ups.

Thanks Jonathan, a bit tied up with other topics this week but hopefully I can write something on swing trading in the future.

Betfair Trading Strategies.

Betfair is a innovative and different way fo betting where you can make nice money , there you can be a normal bettor or a bookmaker and to receive people bets , there is no limit of the bet amounts because all the money in betfair trading are people`s money, betfair are only the platform and get 5 to 7,5 % commissions of your winning bets . This betfair platform is like a normal trading but here you trade with the football odds which are more logical than the other company indexes . In the platform you can make nice income daily using different prooved methods of trading with backing and laying bets .

Some of the famous strategies suitable for beginners but also used by some professional traders nowadays also:

The lay and back strategy in tennis is simple and easy to be traded. We know that sometimes the favourite tennis players start the match with no 100% motivation and mak mistakes from the beginning, such matches we lay the favourite player ( not to win ) at 1.30 odd for example, asking for 100 euros profit our liability will be 30 euros ( we have to pay 30 euros) and if the match starts good for us and bad for the favourite player we expect the odd to become for example 1,50 odd, this moment we hit the back button at 1,50 odd with 100 euros stake ( the same stake like the lay bet) and we close the trade with profit, here the proposals of closing the trade are two – to close the trade with equal profit – 10 euros if the favourite player lose or 10 euros if the favourite player wins, this means no matter how the match will end you take 10.00 euros, the second proposal is 2o euros ( the difference from 1,30 to 1,50 is 20 euros with stakes of 100 euros) to be put only for the favourite players and 0.00 for the weaker player, this means if the weaker player wins you just back your money with no profit and no lose, and if the favourite player wins you take 20,00 euros in your betfair account . This is simple strategy with low liability but you have to feel when a favourite player will start with mistakes the match. Success.

Football Lay Correct Score :

Another simple method of trading with really low chance of losing . Here we just choose some correct score that think will not happen in the match and lay it, for example, Manchester United – Aston Villa lay correct score 0-2 for Aston Villa the lay odd is 39.00 and you want to make 10.00 euros and the liability is 380.00 euros. Place the lay bet before the match and after the first 15 minutes if Manchester United score a goals you take the full 100% of the 10.00 euros that you want because can not happen the result to be 0-2 because of the United`s goal, or if the results is 0-0 the back odd will be higher and you can make a back bet ( such amount to close the trade in a profit) and tlo close the trade in a profit on 15th minute of the match no matter how the match will end. Simple soccer trading strategy, you just should havev some nice football knowledges to know which correct score percentage to happen is lower according to the teams . Here if you have enough bankroll, discipline and be patient you cna make nice money monthly .

With the first two trading strategies you understand the algorithm of most of the strategies and what we want is to exit from the trades as soon as possible. In the Lay Multiples strategies is also very interesting and mosto f the people say that this is the best and secure way for making money in betfair. For example, you go to the multiples menu and choose 2 matches with clar favourite team, hit back on the win of the weaker team and repeat this on the second match, select these two matches in a multiple and see that the odd, for example is 8.00 x 7.00 = 56.00 odd, hit the button lay multiple and write the stakes of hte backer ( money that you want) – 10.00 euros and see that your liability is 550.00 euros if the weakers teams wins in this matches. With this strategy it is very different ot lose because the only one time that you will los here is the two matches to end with wins for the weakers team, in all other outcomes you make a profit 10.00 euros. Really very nice lay multiples method, here you just bigger bankroll .

These are the best betfair trading strategies according to our team, there are also other algorithms that you can find and feel comfortable with them. The last thing that we have to tell yoiu is that if you are not good with fast calculations in real time, in betfair there is a options CASH OUT which means if you hit this button it is written how much money – minus or plus you can exit from the match.

Hope to help you really with trading in betfair with this article, and if you have some questions or want to tell us some secrets about betfair and want ot add something about betfair algorithms feel free to contact us.

3 Simple Horse Racing Trading Strategies for Betfair.

Horse Racing Trading Strategies: Where Do You Start?!

Of all the trading opportunities on the exchange, horse racing holds the most. With so many races, day after day, week after week, you only need a small average return to highly successful.

But where the hell do you start?

It’s often quite daunting at first, but one things for sure: it’ll never get boring. This is why I immediately drawn to developing horse racing trading strategies.

But If I’m really honest, the huge sums of money to be made probably had more to do with it! With 15 – 40 race a day an average of just £10 per race soon adds up.

Building up a selection of horse racing trading strategies wasn’t quite so easy. While it was absolutely worth it, it did take some time (and a lot of mistakes on the way!)

This post I want to give you the short-cut to developing some horse racing trading strategies of your own. By focusing on one at a time you highly increase your chances of success… and reduce that over-whelming feeling. Mastering just one of these three is more than enough to make a stable side-income:

Successful Scalping Before the Start Backing to Lay For a Quick Win Swing Trading a Large Price Movement.

Horse Racing Trading Strategies: 1. SCALPING Successfully Pre-Race.

If you aren’t familiar, scalping is a trading technique where small profits are taken quickly and consistently.

It’s important to be on top of your own mindset when scalping, as hesitation on exit could mean several previous ‘scalps’ that were profitable are wiped out quickly.

Of all the horse racing trading strategies, this has long been my favoured approach. Consistently turning a small profit can add up fast, and doesn’t require a large bankroll or much market knowledge, it’s one of the easier skills to acquire in my opinion. Discipline and method of execution will determine how successful you are when it comes to scalping.

Do you find scalping frustrating? If so, the chances are you’re either:

Operating in the wrong setting Slow to react (poor discipline) Not executing well Over-trading.

Or all of the above. It’s likely your main problem is discipline to start (I’ve been through it too). However, with the right stake management and patience it’s completely do-able. Usually I find followers begin to struggle some more after they’ve had some success scalping.

Because once you make some money, the urge is to try and apply it to everything, every race, every situation . That just won’t work. This also leads to over-trading…

Here’s a clip of me scalping on YouTube from some time ago…

If you aren’t yet familiar with the interface in the video above, see this link.

In order to give yourself an increased chance of success you will need to find situations where the price is fairly stable, and the volume of matched bets entering the markets is as high as possible.

Depending on the size of stake you wish to use, you will need to consider the situations stability more (it can be harder to get larger stakes through quickly £500-£1,000+)

Being the simplest of horse racing trading strategies, means you can implement this strategy in pretty much any market at one point or another, although throughout the whole trading window. The key to success is picking the right time-frame. The more money there is flowing through the market the easier it is to get your bets matched.

Think to peak periods in the market, where the most money is bet….

Horse Racing Trading Strategies: 2. How To BACK TO LAY For a Quick Win.

If you follow me on Twitter or Facebook (links on the sidebar) . You’ll have seen me post up Back-to-Lay pointers from time to time.

There’s far less opportunity to use this one than scalping or swing trading. But given the right selection and execution, its seriously fast money.

Sporting Life is my preferred resource for how horses have previously run. Many others are also useful, but don’t give quite so much written history on previous performances.

Several followers have messaged me since I introduced them to it, saying how it’s the easiest of horse racing trading strategies. The only potential downside being there are maybe one or two really good opportunities a day. The upside is; returns are high when considering the stake to profit ratio when comparing to other horse racing trading strategies. Having a lower bankroll but still achieving good results makes it attractive to those just coming into the game.

…be warned it can be quite addictive! (making profit always is).

Other horse racing trading strategies are often bring lower stake-profit ratio, although there are more opportunities throughout the day.

One thing to bear in mind with the video above is that you won’t want to have a large liability at the first hurdle in jumps racing. It’s a good idea to offset your liability by this point just in case the horse falls. The best horse racing trading strategies limit your potential downside while leaving room for profit, not the other way around.

Horse Racing Trading Strategies: 3. SWING TRADING a Price-Shift (Before the Start)

Of all the horse racing trading strategies (pre-race), this one gets people excited.

If you can predict a large swing in price, you have far more opportunity to win. But in order to swing trade well you’ll need the patience of a saint.

The natural tendency is to close a trade when its winning, but let it run if its losing. We’ve all been there, right?

When you read that out loud, it’s easy to see it should be quite the opposite. It’s this kind of thing that makes trading difficult, all of which have very little to do with the market. And quite a lot to do with the trader!

However, as ever, knowledge is power.

Having the knowledge to give you that extra bit of confidence in what you’re doing is all the difference. By feeling like you actually know where the price will go, it becomes so much easier to let the profits run. More importantly it’s even easier to avoid that horrible sinking feeling as it goes wrong…

Above: Swing trading just goes to show how you don’t need a huge bank to win nice amounts.

Horse Racing Trading Strategies: SUMMARY.

Since 2010 I’ve spent a huge amount of time in the horse racing markets, just about every day.

On route I’ve done it all, made many mistakes and found plenty sweet spots too!

I’ve always been one of those annoying ‘but why?’ people, so finding what works and why that is hasn’t been too hard. For just about everyone the hard bit is avoiding making the same mistakes.

These markets are different to other on Betfair.

Although they may not be as scalable for some horse racing trading strategies, the amount of opportunity on offer is massive! Even now I’m still finding points of interest to adapt and evolve on.

I’m sure the above will be enough to get most traders thinking, old or new. If you already knew what’s been outlined, how could you improve on it?

Over the years I’ve learnt that if I have a reasonable edge, there are usually half a dozen other ideas that can come from it… some of the best have been stumbled upon while looking for something else!

Direct questions are always welcome to the support address, or feel free to reach out to us on the social medial links to the right of this post!

If you found this post of use, please share and comment using the buttons below!

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30 thoughts on “ 3 Simple Horse Racing Trading Strategies for Betfair ”

Nice post. It seems that are a lot of similarities to tennis trading. Since I started to scalp I am on the winning path. Obviously we also have swings at tennis and back to lay (or the opposite) is also a way to make profit. It seems that the biggest advantage of the horses are the high amount of races, you can trade. At tennis I don’t see more than 4-5 opportunities a day. You have to wait for the right moment, some games are not tradeable (for example most first round matches, where a big favourite like Federer or Djokovic is involved).

Keep up the good work. It’s very interesting to read your blog. Perhaps you can put my blog at your link list. Your one is already at my blog roll.

Thanks. I’ve added your Blog.

I have immersed myself in the racing markets over the past 6 months. After many ups and downs I do feel that it’s beginning to click into place. I’m starting to get a lot more consistent with my swing trades, and scalping is getting there (although I have focused primarily on swings). Thanks for all ur content. It has definitely helped me improve. Cheers pal.

Am trying to purchase your Trading Guide by debit card but the “pay now” button seems to be “greyed out” so nothing is happening when I try to process the payment.

Hi Kevin, just checked it and seems okay now ?

Might be boring as you say but let’s look at that.

2 mins to 15 mins of work, and you can trade out on a profit of £20 before the race starts.

Do that 10 times a day, that is £200 a day tax free…

That’s a cool £5200 a month if you do it on weekdays and on Saturdays.

Yep that sounds boring…

Brill stuff Caan.

Downside is as you say, care must be taken but as long as you are okay with a few losses each month – attitude to risk that is means you don’t mind – as you profit anyway, this works. You will make mistakes especially if you go inplay a lot to go for better odds. I do it as a secondary income on top of my usual day job as a freelancer. I use Bet Angel, perfect for this method.

Hi Steve, sure its easy enough to get a bit bored after doing it so long though… but definitely grateful though for sure.

Oh yes, I agree. I get days when staring at stats on sites and bet angel so long numbs my brain. I tend to keep the time consumed under control partly as I run my own business too. Lots of sites are making scalping out to be easy and I want to add that on the surface, yes mostly but readers should not think ‘easy money’. That kind of approach brings easy losses. Newcomers here should take scalping carefully, and keep updated via your site and some others.

Best post about the topic I’ve seen out there. Keep it up, thanks. Paul.

im quite new to this but 100% serious about getting up and running. I was wondering if you could provide some one2one (online) assistance for me if i were to pay for the service.

Is this something you’d be willing to consider or not?

Would you recommend paceform to be able to identify horses that are likely to set the pace?

Superb post Caan.

We’re massive fans at MMOB!

Be sure to follow us on twitter.

Thanks for this post Caan. It’s probably the best horse racing strategies post I’ve seen on the web. You’re YouTube channel has been of great use too!

Only question is: which of the 3 strategies are your preferred approach?

No problem Jan. I aim to please! There should be more content available on the channel soon… Caan.

What software do you use mate?

Hi Chris, Geeks Toy 🙂

I’m 80 years of age so watching the ‘Scalping’ video lost me completely.

Betting odds I understand, this stuff.. no!

My first bet was in a factory. A guy had a timed bag to take to the bookie. 1959.

First bet – 3 sixpenny doubles and a sixpenny treble. Had a 7/1 and a 7/2 double up – never looked back. High street bookies took me to the cleaners. 🙂

Wish I could go back with what I know now!

Crikey Michael, you still bet now despite knowing how it all works?

Awesome article here Caan. Your free content is brilliant, and helped me out so much already! Thank you.

Thanks for the kind words Stu. I like to try and help as much as I can 🙂

Hay Caan, Great post and I’m learning a lot. I went and dabble the scalp method and i entered £5 stake 6.6 and exit at 6.2. All happened before the race, but after checking my Betfair statement, I haven’t won or lost at all. Is it because my stake was too low?

Hey Andrew, sounds like you may have not hedged up?

If you see the scalping Betfair post linked earlier in the article you’ll see that it’s best to use software (it’ll do the calculations for you). That way you can hedge up quickly. By backing and laying the same values at different prices you’d have only been left with a profit for the race if your selection won. And no loss on the other runners. Good luck with your scalping!

Hi Caan, great post, really informative. I do back and lay trading. I back the night before on a horse whose odds look very good value and lay out generally about 20 minutes before the off. The scalping I’ve found a bit confusing. Does anyone else do this back and lay strategy?

Hi Lisa, do you mind if I ask how you choose the races / horses to back? I’ve tried this method with mixed results. How successful have you been with this strategy?

I do it this way as well, either the night before or get up early in the morning. After 9 O’clock it is no good as the value has gone and the market is settling down. Being a woman I don’t think I have the required nerve to trade 10 mins before the off, as it doesn’t give you much time to correct your mistakes. I’m going to give it a try though, and thanks to Caan I am learning more.

How do you go about selecting your horses to back and lay for a profit? do you use Sporting life? If you could give me your criteria that would be great :).

A question about horse race: preracing trade How many tits do you take 1-2 ticks?

And you’ll be fine if you’re going wrong, go out of your trade 1-2 ticks or scratch?

What size in% of your bank should run at prerace trade?

Question about prerace trading: how many% of the bankroll should you use for prerace trading?

The things you write about attacks a nerve to me, thank you for challenging and.

difficult your followers.

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